The elasticity of fishing effort response and harvest outcomes to altered regulatory policies in eel (Anguilla anguilla) recreational angling

Understanding how fishing effort responds to management interventions is important for conserving threatened fisheries resources such as the European eel (Anguilla anguilla). In this paper, we use a discrete choice survey to predict the allocation of recreational angling days directed at eel versus potential substitute fishing opportunities in northern Germany as a function of eel angling regulations, catch attributes and hypothetical eel fishing costs. We found the allocation model to accurately predict current eel effort allocation patterns. Using the validated statistical model as a forecasting tool, we found eel angling effort to be largely resilient to changes in individual eel angling regulations, including daily bag limits, daily rod limits and fishery closures for up to two weeks each month. An inelastic effort response to the most commonly discussed policy interventions suggests that managers cannot expect to substantially reduce eel fishing effort, and thus mortality exerted by anglers on eel, using moderate management interventions. However, when severe regulations, including a two week closure per month, with remaining days limited to a harvest of 1 eel, 60 cm or larger, per angler using a single rod, would be implemented, angling effort devoted to eel can be expected to be reduced by about 42% relative to current conditions at unaltered expected catches. This would reduce landings of eel by anglers by 73%. This reduction in landings has unknown effects on the future recruitment of eel while at the same time substantially reducing angler welfare. Angler welfare can be largely maintained by increases in minimum-size limits and reductions in daily bag limits, while at the same time reducing eel landings by anglers substantially. Such actions are therefore preferred from an angler welfare perspective.