Understanding recreational anglers’ perceptions of stock trend, status, and regime shifts in the western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua)

The western Baltic Sea stock of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) collapsed in 2016 when its spawning stock biomass (B) fell below the reference point Blim. Directed commercial harvest was prohibited on 1 January 2022 and recreational harvest on 1 January 2024. Both the stock collapse and the fishery closures can be viewed as regime shifts – broadly defined as long-lasting reorganisations in structure and function of a system. Whether anglers perceive such changes as regime shifts or temporary fluctuations has implications for management support and compliance. We investigated whether German recreational cod anglers perceived changes in the cod fishery as regime shifts rather than gradual transitions and studied psychological predictors of these perceptions. An online survey of 3,957 anglers yielded 1,788 responses. Most anglers (83.7%) perceived a declining stock trend, 65.1% judged the stock in poor condition, and 72.5% reported at least one profound, decisive, lasting change in the fishery or stock (here, a regime shift) since they began fishing. Greater angling experience and stronger support for the view that cod require management regulations increased the likelihood that anglers reported a declining trend, judged the stock status as poor, and perceived one or more regime shifts in the fishery. Psychological commitment to fishing, the importance attached to catching and retaining cod, and trust in science had little influence on these perceptions. Overall, anglers with a long history of using the fishery were more likely to contextualise their experiences against salient scientific information, aligning with favourable attitudes towards proactive cod management.